NSE Nifty 50 index is eyeing 16,000 points target in the current week to 22 July options expiry. The options data suggested the highest call OI at 16,000 strike, followed by 15,900 strike. Analysts expect Nifty to expire between 15,900-16,000 this week. While Bank Nifty is likely to trade in the 35,600-36,000 range. So far this week, Nifty has added over 1 per cent to today’s high of 15,962.25. While the Bank Nifty index gained nearly 2 per cent so far this week. “Bank Nifty has significant resistance at 36,000; meaningful upsides would happen only if the Bank Nifty is able to take this level out,” Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, Consulting Technical Analyst and founder, Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, told Financial Express Online.
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The indices rallied on the weekly expiry day to mark new highs led by some of the index heavyweights. FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment to the tune of Rs 265 crore. On index futures front, they bought worth Rs 706 crore with increase in open interest indicating long formations and short covering in Thursday’s session. As the market hit a new high, we saw fresh longs in both Nifty as well as Bank Nifty. FIIs formed fresh longs in index futures and their ‘Long Short Ratio’ is now around 73 per cent. For the coming weekly series, 15,900 and 15,800 puts were attracting option writers and hence, downside seems to be limited on Nifty 50. Hence, traders are advised to trade with a positive bias and if Bank Nifty starts contributing, we would see Nifty 50 reaching the milestone of 16,000 in this week itself.
Ajit Mishra, VP – Research, Religare Broking
The Nifty 50 index managed to surpass the hurdle at 15,900 on Thursday July 15, but lacked decisiveness. Going ahead, we feel the positive bias is here to stay; however, buoyancy in the banking pack is critical to regain momentum. The coming week is a holiday-shortened one and we may see Nifty trade within the 15,750-16,150 zone.
Bank Nifty crossed the resistance zone of 35,800 zone on the weekly expiry day but not seeing the follow-up move so far. Having said that, we may see a gradual up move in the index towards the 36,500 zone in the coming sessions. In case of any dip, 35,300 and 34,800 levels would act as crucial support.
Ashis Biswas, Head of Technical Research, CapitalVia Global Research
We expect Nifty 50 to expire between 15,900-16,000 for the 22 July expiry. If we look at the open interest data, we find the highest open interest in call options is at 16,000 strike level with an open interest of 28.42 lakh. On the other hand, the corresponding level for the Put option is at 15,900 levels with an open interest of 32.35 lakh. Option Max pain also indicates the same where the current Max pain level is at 15,900 strikes. For the Bank Nifty, the range is likely to be 35,600 to 36,000.
Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, Consulting Technical Analyst and founder, Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services
Nifty 50 has started the session with significant Put writing at 15,900 followed by Call writing at 16,000. The present action has defined the likely range for the markets to a very defined and capped area of 100-odd points. Either way directional bias will be seen if the Nifty violates either 15,900 or 16,000 levels on either side. Max Call OI concentration is seen at 16,000 levels.
Bank Nifty is also exhibiting a similar behavior. The 36,000 level has continued to see maximum Call writing since morning. This level also holds maximum Call OI at 36,000; highest PUT OI stands at 35,500. Bank Nifty has significant resistance at 36,000; meaningful upsides would happen only if the Bank Nifty is able to take this level out.
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